Spot Silicon Metal Maintained Low-Level Sideways Movement [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM April 16 News:Silicon Metal:The silicon metal market consolidated at the lower end of the range this week, with futures prices leaning stronger and low-priced spot cargoes decreasing. As of April 16, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon (used in silicone) was at 9,300-9,800 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #3303 silicon was at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded contract trended stronger during the week. The SI2605 contract closed at 8,480 yuan/mt on Thursday, up 220 yuan/mt WoW. The SI2609 contract reached a high of 8,620 yuan/mt. Based on the spot-futures price spread for shipments, the absolute price was slightly below the shipment price expectations of most silicon enterprises. Downstream users mainly digested previously purchased low-priced inventory or restocked in small quantities on an as-needed basis, and trading activity remained subdued.

Demand side, the weekly operating rate of polysilicon enterprises remained stable WoW, and polysilicon spot prices showed signs of stabilizing recently. In the short term, polysilicon enterprise operating rates are expected to move sideways, with silicon metal consumption basically stable. Silicone enterprise weekly operating rates saw mixed changes, and overall operating rates fluctuated slightly weaker, with silicon metal consumption varying within a narrow range. Aluminum-silicon alloy enterprise weekly operating rates remained stable WoW. Specifically, the primary aluminum-silicon alloy sector recovered slowly with an overall sluggish pace; the secondary aluminum-silicon alloy sector's operating rate was under pressure and generally stable with slight fall, mainly dragged by weak downstream demand and limited profit margins.

Supply side, silicon metal enterprise operating rates edged slightly weaker in early April. With both supply and demand weak, the silicon metal supply-demand balance was roughly maintained. Cost side, raw material prices held steady, and the cost-support logic remained unchanged. Silicon metal price changes remained limited, and spot prices are expected to continue moving sideways within a narrow range. Attention should still be paid to any potential news-driven disruptions going forward.

Polysilicon:The polysilicon price index was 35.05 yuan/kg this week. N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.3 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 33-36 yuan/kg. The overall decline in polysilicon prices slowed down this week. On one hand, prices had already fallen to near the cash cost levels of multiple mainstream producers, providing strong cost support for prices. On the other hand, futures price movements offered polysilicon producers more options and a correction in sentiment. However, downstream resistance to high-priced resources persisted, and the market engaged in a certain degree of negotiation. Attention should be paid to subsequent actual transaction outcomes and wafer price developments.

Wafer:Wafer price ranges declined this week. Specifically, N-type 183 wafer prices were at 0.88-0.93 yuan/piece, 210R wafer prices were quoted at 0.98-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafer prices were quoted at 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece. This morning, a top-tier enterprise raised its all-size wafer quotes by 0.02 yuan/piece, while the other two enterprises had not yet followed suit. It is understood that the above move contributed to stopping the fall and stabilizing wafer prices, and was also related to the scarcity of low-priced raw materials. As of now, battery selling prices had already approached the cash cost of 0.33 Yuan/W, so the acceptance of a new round of wafer price increases was very low. In summary, it is possible for wafer prices to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but the likelihood of a rapid rebound is relatively small.

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