Improved Macro Sentiment Drove LME Zinc Higher [SMM Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures: During the overnight session, LME zinc opened at $3,340.5/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc briefly dipped to a low of $3,336.5/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their positions, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $3,414/mt during the night session, ultimately closing up at $3,400/mt, up $60/mt or 1.8%. Trading volume increased to 12,425 lots, and open interest increased by 1,955 lots to 217,000 lots. During the overnight session, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,850 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, it briefly dipped to a low of 23,840 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bears reduced their positions, and the SHFE zinc price center shifted upward, reaching a high of 23,970 yuan/mt, ultimately closing up at 23,900 yuan/mt, up 185 yuan/mt or 0.78%. Trading volume decreased to 47,019 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,040 lots to 71,016 lots.
Macro:
US officials: Sources said Iran had not yet agreed to extend the ceasefire request, and the White House denied formally requesting a ceasefire extension. Reports indicated that Iran proposed allowing free passage for vessels on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel said it had not received any decision or request related to a ceasefire with Lebanon. Iran's Foreign Ministry: There was room for dialogue on the degree and type of uranium enrichment. China's Foreign Ministry: China and the US maintained communication on US President Trump's visit to China. China's Ministry of Commerce: Since the beginning of this year, sales under the consumer goods trade-in policy exceeded 500 billion yuan.
Spot market:
Shanghai: The refined zinc purchasing sentiment in Shanghai was 2.06, and the shipments sentiment was 2.78. Zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai remained at highs. Traders in the market mainly focused on shipments, but zinc futures prices fluctuated at highs, and downstream enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach. Yesterday, zinc ingot purchases were basically on an as-needed basis, and overall spot trading performance was poor.
Guangdong: The refined zinc purchasing sentiment in Guangdong was 1.79, and the sales sentiment was 2.82. Zinc prices remained relatively high. Spot trades in the Guangdong market were mediocre, with insufficient purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers. Traders faced difficulties in shipments. Market transactions remained in the discount range, and spot premiums edged down yesterday.
Tianjin: The refined zinc purchasing sentiment in Tianjin was 1.84, and the shipments sentiment was 2.53. Yesterday, zinc prices continued to rebound but had not yet reached downstream enterprises' psychological price levels. They still maintained a wait-and-see approach with fewer inquiries. Traders' shipments remained at large discounts, and overall market transactions were mediocre.
Ningbo: Zinc futures prices fluctuated. Yesterday, some low-priced zinc ingot offers in the market were raised, but downstream enterprises had accumulated certain inventory from earlier purchases. Yesterday, inquiries and transactions were limited, and overall spot trades were sluggish.
Social inventory: On April 15, LME zinc inventory increased by 550 mt to 116,475 mt, up 0.47%. According to SMM's market communication, as of April 13, inventory in China increased.
Zinc price outlook: LME zinc posted a large bullish candlestick during the overnight session. The prospects for new peace talks between the US and Iran were positive, market concerns eased, and non-ferrous metals rose broadly. Ex-China zinc ingot supply is expected to weaken, and the LME zinc price center shifted upward. LME zinc is expected to mainly fluctuate at highs today. SHFE zinc posted a small bullish candlestick during the overnight session. Macro sentiment continued to improve, and LME showed strong performance, driving SHFE zinc higher. SHFE zinc is expected to mainly fluctuate at highs today.

Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.