Macro Expectations Shifted Again, SHFE Tin Contract Dropped in a Stepwise Manner in the Morning [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review, April 13, 2026

This morning, the tin market weakened on both SHFE and LME. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2605 contract declined in a stepwise fashion during the morning session, opening at 378,500 yuan/mt before quickly dipping and experiencing two pullbacks, closing the morning session at 368,880 yuan/mt, down 1.72%. LME tin came under pressure in tandem with the weakness on SHFE, with LME three-month tin temporarily quoted at $46,900/mt, down 2.80%.

The current macro market's dominant trading theme has shifted back to concerns over the prolonged nature of geopolitical conflicts. Earlier expectations of a brief détente failed to materialize into substantive outcomes, as parties showed significant divergences on core interests and negotiation bottom lines, ultimately leading to the collapse of peace talks. The failure of ceasefire expectations triggered a renewed wave of risk-averse sentiment, with funds that had previously flowed into risk assets on peace expectations undergoing a phased withdrawal, exerting notable downward pressure on the non-ferrous metals sector as a whole.

Alongside the stepwise decline in futures, spot market transactions recovered slightly today compared to the previous period. During the earlier phase of stagnant macro sentiment and futures fluctuating at highs, downstream enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach and focused on depleting existing inventory. This morning, as tin prices declined, some downstream enterprises made small purchases on dips. However, due to the high uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation outside China, the market maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance. Supply side, traders' offers remained generally stable today, holding prices firm while watching the market; meanwhile, some smelters' offers showed slight softening, displaying moderate willingness to lock in profits at highs and sell.

Overall, today's decline in tin prices was primarily driven by risk-averse sentiment triggered by the breakdown of macro-level peace talks. In the short term, futures trends will remain highly dependent on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the interplay of macro-level capital flows. Fundamentals side, although the pullback in absolute prices stimulated some bargain-hunting buying, overall downstream uptake remained cautious. Tin prices are expected to shift into a wide-range, in the doldrums pattern in the near term amid the continuation of macro-level tensions.