The most-traded SHFE tin contract edged lower at the open in the night session before fluctuating upward and rebounding, while downstream enterprises mainly purchased to restock for phased rigid production demand [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing, April 3, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly lower in the night session and then fluctuated upward, closing at 366,040 yuan/mt, down 0.69%.

Macro: (1) Tesla (TSLA.O) released one of its worst quarterly sales results in recent years today, missing Wall Street expectations, as its core business transformation remained difficult and the EV market faced challenges. The company said on Thursday that Q1 global deliveries were 358,023 units, versus the median analyst estimate of 372,160 units, a forecast that had been revised down continuously over the past few weeks. This marked the second consecutive quarter that Tesla missed expectations. Investors had largely been willing to overlook Tesla's sales trend because Musk was shifting focus to future business lines such as artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics. However, the traditional automotive business remained Tesla's main source of cash. After the delivery data was released, Tesla (TSLA.O) fell 4% in pre-market trading. As of Wednesday's close, its share price had fallen 15% this year and was down 22% from its record high in December last year. (2) The CPCA said in an article today that, in China's passenger vehicle market, producers with February 2026 new energy sales exceeding 10,000 units accounted for 93% of total passenger NEV sales for the month. Based on preliminary compiled data for March, the March sales of these enterprises with February new energy sales above 10,000 units were 990,000 units. At present, sales figures for most producers have basically been locked in at a broad level. Some producers that had relatively low wholesale volumes in February due to the Chinese New Year performed very well in March. Therefore, based on last month's structural share combined with this month's data, March nationwide passenger NEV wholesale sales were estimated at 1.12 million units. In summary, based on the preliminary monthly CPCA data, nationwide passenger vehicle producer new energy wholesale sales in March 2026 were estimated at 1.12 million units, flat YoY and up 55% MoM from February.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters maintained stable production in April. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remained cautious, with purchases made according to order conditions.

Spot market: Some downstream enterprises made appropriate purchases on dips, mainly to meet rigid short-term production needs through restocking. In addition, given the current low visible inventory in the tin market, overall circulating supply in the market did not appear ample. Suppliers maintained stable offer sentiment, and low inventory together with moderate buying support made spot premiums relatively resilient despite the decline in futures.

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