[SMM Weekly Manganese Ore Review] Initial Overseas Market Offers Raised, Intensifying the Tug-of-War Between Strong Expectations and Weak Reality in the Manganese Ore Market

March 27 News:

North China ports: South African high-grade ore at 36-37.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate at 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore at 47.3-47.9 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps at 48-48.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday.

South China ports: South African high-grade ore at 34.5-35 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate at 38.8-39.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; Gabon ore at 44-44.5 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps at 45.2-45.7 yuan/mtu, up WoW from last Friday.

Currently, the manganese ore market is being driven by costs and trending stronger, with gains more pronounced in the north.

Supply side, mine production costs have risen rigidly. On the one hand, south Africa's electricity prices were approved for increases for two consecutive years (April 2026: +8.76%; April 2027: +8.83%); on the other hand, the South African government decided to comprehensively raise prices for various fuel products. Fluctuations in energy prices are expected to continue pushing up ore prices. Consolidated Minerals (CML) released its May 2026 offer to China, with Australian lumps of Mn>46%Fe<4%Si02<18% quoted at $6/mtu, up $0.4/mtu MoM. Amid rising costs and bullish import expectations, port manganese ore traders held firm offers, and transaction prices for different manganese ore products rose.

Demand side, futures: SiMn futures fluctuated in a consolidation range, and market sentiment was relatively cautious. Spot: SiMn plants in north China resumed normal production schedules after the holiday, with sufficient capacity to take manganese ore; in south China, alloy plants that had resumed operations showed higher acceptance of manganese ore prices amid bullish expectations for manganese ore, and manganese ore transaction prices rose. In addition, some plants in north China are expected to cut production by 30%. If the production cuts are implemented, their capacity to take manganese ore will weaken accordingly.

Inventory side, Tianjin Port: inventory was at a medium level, with a moderate pace of port cargo pick-up, supporting prices. Qinzhou Port: inventory buildup continued, inventory at high levels, and destocking pressure remained.

In the short term, strong costs, weak fundamentals, and high expectations coexist in the manganese ore market. Prices are more likely to rise than fall, with north China leading the gains; it is still necessary to track the pace of production cuts at north China alloy plants, as well as the pace of production resumptions at south China alloy plants, port destocking, and the implementation of manganese ore offers of overseas miners.