Production Cut Rumors Lifted the Morning Session, but Macro Risks Curbed Upward Momentum, Leaving Iron Ore Only Slightly Higher [SMM Brief Review]

[SMM Steel] Vietnam exported 2.94 mln tons of steel in Q1 2026, up nearly 7% YoY, with March shipments reaching 1.03 mln tons (+23% MoM). The United States remained the largest market, with exports rising 32% YoY, while shipments to Russia surged over 830%, albeit from a low base. Strong growth was also seen in India and Southeast Asia. However, exports continue to face mounting pressure from trade protection measures, including US Section 232 tariffs and EU CBAM and quota restrictions, pushing Vietnamese producers to rely more on domestic demand. Supported by infrastructure investment and real estate recovery, Vietnam’s steel consumption is expected to grow 5–8% in 2026, positioning the domestic market as the key growth driver.

[SMM Steel] Morocco has notified the World Trade Organization of its plan to extend safeguard measures on hot-rolled steel imports for another three years (Jun 2026–Jun 2029), maintaining an additional 19% tariff. The move aims to protect domestic producers from rising import pressure. The extension could weigh on Vietnamese steel exports, requiring exporters to reassess pricing strategies, cost structures, and market positioning. Industry authorities advise firms to diversify export markets and closely monitor trade remedy developments to mitigate risks.

[SMM Steel] Nucor Corporation reported record quarterly steel shipments of 7.4 mln short tons in Q1 2026, up 8.7% YoY, marking the highest level in its history. Orders also reached 4.7 mln short tons, the strongest since Q2 2021. The performance reflects solid mill execution and contributions from new capacity, alongside strong demand from data centers and the energy sector. Nucor expects full-year shipments to grow by over 5%, supported by favorable demand conditions and ongoing trade protection measures.