[SMM Analysis] Ternary Cathode Payables May See Modest Increase in Q2

This week, ternary cathode material prices edged higher, primarily driven by a rebound in spot prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. Nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and manganese sulfate prices showed limited fluctuations overall. Recent price movements in ternary cathode materials have largely followed lithium salt price trends. As the supply-side outlook for lithium salts remains uncertain, ternary cathode prices are expected to continue fluctuating next week.

In terms of transactions, most EV market manufacturers primarily engage in quarterly contract agreements, and negotiations for second-quarter orders are currently underway as the first quarter comes to a close. Given strong expectations of tight supply on the raw material side and increasing upstream cost pressures, payables in the second quarter may see modest upward adjustments. In the e-mobility and consumer markets, some manufacturers placed bulk orders earlier this week when lithium salt prices were at relatively low levels. Current order placement sentiment in the consumer market remains closely tied to raw material price correction windows.

On the demand side, although domestic NEV sales have fallen short of expectations, seasonal recovery combined with overseas export rush demand has driven a notable rebound in domestic EV market orders during March. In the consumer market, some battery cell manufacturers placed bulk orders during the recent raw material price trough, providing solid support for cathode manufacturers' downstream orders. Overall, ternary cathode supply has shown significant recovery in March. However, the outlook for the second quarter remains uncertain, particularly as overseas orders are expected to see a notable decline in April following the conclusion of the export rush period.