Construction Steel Inventory Growth Slows, Destocking Phase Expected Next Week

Published: Mar 20, 2026 10:43

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This week, total rebar inventory stood at 8.3525 million mt, up 57,800 mt WoW, or 0.7% (previously +3.46%). Compared with the same period of the lunar calendar last year, it increased by 281,200 mt, or 3.48% (previously +4.58%).

This week, total inventory of construction steel continued to accumulate. Supply side, blast furnace steel mills maintained a steady production pace, with production remaining relatively stable; EAF steel mills resumed production in an orderly manner as planned, and the capacity utilization rate rebounded slightly, resulting in a slight increase in overall market supply. Demand side, downstream demand gradually recovered, and rigid end-user demand was released step by step. Although total construction steel inventory continued to accumulate this week, the pace of increase slowed markedly.

This week, total rebar inventory stood at 8.3525 million mt, up 57,800 mt WoW, or 0.7% (previously +3.46%). Compared with the same period of the lunar calendar last year, it increased by 281,200 mt, or 3.48% (previously +4.58%).

This week, rebar in-factory inventory stood at 2.4393 million mt, down 58,200 mt WoW, or 2.33% (previously +1%). YoY, it increased by 78,800 mt from last year, or 3.34% (previously +3.45%). Steel mills maintained a relatively stable production pace this week, but as downstream construction sites gradually resumed work and some direct-supply demand recovered, coupled with steel mills proactively stepping up the transfer of in-factory inventory to social inventory, in-factory inventory turned from an increase to a decline this week.

This week, rebar social inventory stood at 5.9133 million mt, up 115,900 mt WoW, or 2% (previously +4.55%), and up 202,300 mt YoY, or 3.54% (previously 5.08%). Futures overall showed a fluctuating trend within a range, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts relatively intense. Market participants mostly remained cautious and on the sidelines about the subsequent market trend, and transactions were still mainly driven by purchasing as needed. Coupled with the shift of some in-factory inventory to social inventory, social inventory continued to accumulate this week.

Supply side, concentrated production resumptions at electric furnace mills have entered the final stage, with a lack of large-scale additional production release afterward, and supply growth will tend to flatten; demand side, downstream construction sites have fully resumed work, end-user procurement demand has continued to be released, and the market supply-demand pattern has gradually improved. Next week, demand is expected to recover further, inventory is likely to reach an inflection point, and total construction steel inventory is expected to officially enter the destocking phase.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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