SMM, March 17:
In the morning session, the SHFE 2604 copper contract fluctuated higher before pulling back. It opened at 100,200 yuan/mt, then fluctuated between 100,100 yuan/mt and 100,280 yuan/mt after the open, before rising further to a high of 100,500 yuan/mt, then pulling back to 100,060 yuan/mt, and closed at 100,130 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread narrowed between 130 yuan/mt and 80 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the front-month SHFE copper contract ranged from a loss of 50 yuan/mt to a profit of 10 yuan/mt.
Intraday, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.55, up 0.02 MoM, while procurement sentiment was 2.62, down 0.01 MoM, . At the start of morning trading, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at discounts of 150 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, among which HMG-B, JCC, Lufang and others were quoted at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, while Jinchuan isa, Tiefeng, Jinfeng, Zijin, Jinxin and others were quoted at discounts of 150 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Guixi and Jinchuan (plate) was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt; non-registered copper was quoted at discounts of 210 yuan/mt to 150 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading period, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and suppliers lowered prices slightly. HMG-B, JCC and others were quoted at discounts of 110 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt, while Jinchuan isa, Zijin, and Jinchuan isa Yongchang were traded successively at quoted discounts of 170 yuan/mt to 150 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper cargoes were scarce, with only some Myanmar cargoes circulating, quoted at a discount of 170 yuan/mt.
Intraday, spot market trading was weak on both buying and selling sides. Suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm, while downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong, and spot premiums slipped slightly from yesterday. As the inter-month Contango price spread narrowed, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse weakened somewhat, putting pressure on spot premiums. Demand side, downstream maintained just-in-time procurement, and transactions remained sluggish even after suppliers slightly lowered quotations, as current copper prices had limited appeal to end-users. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, while social inventory remained high. The outflow of warrants over the next two days may further pressure spot premiums. Meanwhile, the import window still showed signs of opening, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China intensified, further increasing supply-side pressure. Overall, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, with the possibility of a slight widening.
