US Seeks Miners to Expand Critical Minerals Supply; Overnight LME Copper Edged Up Slightly, SHFE Copper Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.3.9 Monday
Futures: On Friday night last week, LME copper opened at $12,871.5/mt. After fluctuating rangebound following the open, it dipped to $12,805.5/mt, then the center rose to a high of $12,927.5/mt, and finally closed at $12,869/mt, up 0.08%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, down 3,517 lots from the previous trading day; open interest reached 308,000 lots, up 2,377 lots from the previous trading day, overall mainly reflecting bulls adding positions. On Friday night last week, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,250 yuan/mt. Early in the session it bottomed at 100,180 yuan/mt, then the center rose to a high of 100,820 yuan/mt, and finally fluctuated rangebound and closed at 100,250 yuan/mt, down 0.53%. Trading volume reached 69,000 lots, down 58,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest reached 197,000 lots, up 1,229 lots from the previous trading day, overall mainly reflecting bears adding positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) The US military asked miners to help expand domestic supply of 13 critical minerals used to manufacture semiconductors, weapons, and other products. The request, made before the US and Israel’s military strikes on Iran last Friday (February 27), was the latest move in recent weeks by Washington to secure more military materials. Documents seen by Reuters showed that the Pentagon asked members of the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC) to submit project proposals by March 20 for mining, processing, or recycling designated minerals. DIBC consists of more than 1,500 enterprises, universities, and other arms suppliers. There is currently no indication whether the timing of this action was intentionally aligned with the strikes on Iran. The 13 minerals involved include vanadium, nickel, bismuth, tungsten, zirconium, hafnium, samarium, gadolinium, ytterbium, yttrium, germanium, arsenic, and graphite. US consumption of these 13 minerals relies on imports from abroad.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: In the morning session on March 6, the SHFE copper 2603 contract showed a pattern of opening lower and moving higher. It opened at 100,550 yuan/mt, then quickly fell to 100,300 yuan/mt after the open, then rebounded, rising to 101,200 yuan/mt before dropping slightly; it later began to rise from 100,910 yuan/mt, touched a high of 101,240 yuan/mt, and closed at 101,080 yuan/mt. The contango price spread between futures contracts for the next month ranged between 300 yuan/mt and 240 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper in the current month ranged between a loss of 540 yuan/mt and 400 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, Shanghai spot copper spot discounts were expected to continue a steady recovery. From the market structure perspective, the next-month C price spread between futures contracts staying around 300 yuan/mt led suppliers to hold prices firm and withhold sales, while the downward shift in the center of copper prices effectively stimulated downstream purchase willingness, and spot premiums rose markedly. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, and with social inventory at a high level, overall circulating supply in the market remained ample. Under the combined effect of suppliers holding prices firm and downstream buying the dip, the momentum for spot discounts to recover was expected to continue.
(2) Guangdong: On March 6, Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,900 yuan/mt, down 550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,740 yuan/mt, down 550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices stopped falling and rebounded, downstream buyers proactively replenished inventories, pushing premiums higher, and overall trading was relatively active.
(3) Imported copper: On March 6, the average warrant price fell $4/mt from the previous trading day; the average B/L price fell $4/mt from the previous trading day; the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $4/mt from the previous trading day, with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late March.
(4) Secondary copper: On March 6 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 101,080 yuan/mt, down 340 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -70 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 6, copper scrap prices remained unchanged MoM; the average price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 90,800 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,230 yuan/mt, down 305 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 280 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, traders of imported copper scrap said that, due to domestic policies, scrap utilization enterprises prioritized purchasing copper scrap, with imported cargoes as the first choice. Import traders were actively procuring, but no increase was seen in overseas copper scrap supply. Copper scrap imports were expected to post limited growth in March.
Prices: On the macro front, US nonfarm payrolls in February unexpectedly fell by 92,000, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded, which was positive for copper prices. Meanwhile, as the US-Iran war continued to escalate, oil prices kept rising, and market concerns over US inflation persisted. Fundamentals: On the supply side, domestic and imported cargoes continued to arrive, and market circulation was ample; on the demand side, consumption gradually recovered as downstream operations resumed. Overall, copper prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]