Blast Furnace Maintenance Intensity Increased; Futures Fluctuated Rangebound, and Spot Cargo Dropped Slightly [SMM Brief Commentary]

DCE iron ore futures mostly fluctuated rangebound today, and the most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 752 yuan/mt, up 0.04% from the previous trading session. The spot price fell 0-2 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, while steel mills mainly purchased on rigid demand and generally stayed on the sidelines. Overall, the spot trading atmosphere was somewhat average.

This week, the SMM survey showed that daily average hot metal production was 2.3878 million mt, down 5,900 mt MoM. The decline in hot metal was mainly due to environmental protection-driven production curbs. Next week, eight blast furnaces were expected to enter maintenance, so overall hot metal showed a downward trend. The reduction in hot metal production was expected to be a bearish factor for iron ore demand. Meanwhile, iron ore originally shipped to the Middle East might be redirected to China amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially exacerbating supply-side looseness. Therefore, with strong supply and weak demand, resistance for iron ore remained evident. In the short term, iron ore prices were expected to maintain sideways movement or be biased to the downside.