[SMM Aluminium Analysis]Domestic Aluminum Production Rises 2.1% YoY, Liquid Aluminum Proportion to Rebound in March 2026

Published: Feb 28, 2026 17:04

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SMM February 28 News:
According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in February 2026 (28 days) increased 2.1% YoY but decreased 8.9% MoM.
Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the overall operating rate of downstream industries was low during the month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum also saw a significant pullback, dropping 7.7 percentage points MoM to 64.4%, in line with expectations at the beginning of the month. The main reasons were that demand had not yet recovered amid the off-season, coupled with production halts for the holiday at some downstream enterprises. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in February increased 25.8% YoY and 16.2% MoM.
Capacity Changes: As of the end of February, SMM statistics show domestic existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.209 million mt, and domestic operating aluminum capacity was approximately 45.109 million mt.
Production Forecast: Entering March 2026, with the return of calendar days, aluminum production is expected to rebound MoM. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, as downstream enterprises resume work after the holiday, raw material demand is gradually strengthening. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise significantly. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is projected to increase 9.2 percentage points to 73.5%.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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