Silicon Metal Focuses on Changes in Operating Rates on the Supply Side, Silicone Prices Show Optimistic Sentiment [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM February 25 News:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices remained basically stable during the Chinese New Year holiday. The price range in Shaanxi was approximately 820-900 yuan/mt, the average price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 855 yuan/mt, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon coal in Inner Mongolia was about 1,260 yuan/mt, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/mt, and the average price of pellet coal was about 1,050 yuan/mt.

Supply: During the holiday, supply contracted as some coal washing plants were closed and environmental and safety production requirements were high.

Demand: The market was largely closed during the holiday. Downstream silicon plants had completed stockpiling before the holiday, and coupled with logistics suspensions, the market was essentially inactive. However, as transportation capacity gradually recovers after the holiday, market transactions are expected to increase.

Silicon Metal

Price: Wait-and-see sentiment was strong after the Chinese New Year, and silicon enterprise quotations were basically stable compared to pre-holiday levels. Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,600 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract fluctuated near 8,350-8,450 yuan/mt, with some futures-spot traders' spot-futures price spread quotations strengthening slightly. On the first trading day after the holiday, the market was mainly characterized by inquiries, with limited spot transaction volume.

Production:

Due to production cuts at some capacities and fewer production days, silicon metal production in February decreased significantly MoM. The operating rate of silicon enterprises after the holiday was basically stable compared to pre-holiday levels. The restart timing for production cuts at top-tier enterprises remains unclear, and subsequent changes in industry operating rates warrant attention.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in key regions on February 12 was 557,000 mt, down 5,000 mt from the previous week (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price yesterday was 13,800-14,000 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels. Demand was stagnant during the holiday. After the holiday, as downstream plants resume operation and the first round of rigid restocking demand is gradually released, and with supply-side operating rates low, coupled with the fact that silicone monomer enterprises will hold a silicone industry conference in Zhejiang from late February to early March, market prices still have upward expectations.

D4: The quotation yesterday was 13,900-15,000 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels.

107 Silicone Rubber: The quotation yesterday was 14,200-14,800 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels.

Raw Gum: The quotation yesterday was 14,600-15,000 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels.

Silicone Oil: The quotation yesterday was 15,200-15,800 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels.

Production:

During the Chinese New Year holiday, as the industry's emission reduction strategies continued to advance, most monomer enterprises in major production regions continued to implement shutdown maintenance, rotational inspections, and production load reductions, sustaining reduced supply. The overall operating rate was approximately 60%.

Inventory:

During the Chinese New Year holiday, upstream producers experienced a slight inventory buildup due to logistics suspensions. However, some enterprises still had certain pre-sold orders for support. Therefore, as logistics and transportation gradually returned to normal, the situation was expected to improve, making the overall inventory relatively controllable.

Polysilicon

Price:

The quoted price for polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was 48.5-57.5 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index was 52.6 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were relatively stable overall. The market heard yesterday that some manufacturers had expectations for price reductions, but most were not implemented. Last night, news emerged about acquisitions by top-tier enterprises, which the market interpreted as bullish. The actual situation needed continued monitoring, especially regarding the current oversupply pressure in polysilicon inventory.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production declined significantly in February. In March, some small enterprises currently had plans to resume operations, but the actual implementation depended on subsequent polysilicon prices.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory continued to rise this week. The current market was relatively chaotic, with reduced trading frequency during the Spring Festival holiday, leading to a slight increase in inventory.

Wafer

Price

The market price for 18X wafers was 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece, for 210RN wafers was 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece, and for 210N wafers was 1.4-1.45 yuan/piece. Post-holiday wafer prices remained stable within a range, and low-priced orders in the market were decreasing. The acquisition news from upstream players yesterday released positive signals for industry mergers and acquisitions.

Production

Wafer production decreased by over 3% in February, with the actual reduction slightly higher than expectations. According to surveys, individual specialized enterprises suspended furnace operations during the Spring Festival, while others increased production. Toll processing orders in the market maintained previous levels.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventory continued to increase. After fluctuations in the silver price range, cell enterprises were expected to resume work gradually after the holiday, potentially leading wafer inventory into a destocking cycle.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

The current domestic price for inner-layer sand was 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, for middle-layer sand was 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and for outer-layer sand was 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. The price for imported high-purity quartz sand was 74,000-76,000 yuan/mt. The price for a 33-inch quartz crucible was 6,000-6,200 yuan/piece, and for a 36-inch quartz crucible was 7,000-7,400 yuan/piece. Recent overall prices remained stable.

Production

In February, high-purity quartz sand enterprises maintained expectations of a slight production cut, and domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises reduced production to align with silicon wafer demand when formulating production plans.

Inventory

At the beginning of 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on the planned production of silicon wafers, and the inventory level of quartz sand continued to increase.