[SMM Analysis] Cost Rise Fails to Provide Support, Weak Demand Leads to Both Volume and Price Decline of LiPF6 in January

In January 2026, the LiPF6 market exhibited a simultaneous decline in both production and prices, primarily influenced by multiple factors including weakening end-use demand, subdued purchasing willingness downstream, and a loosened supply-demand pattern.

On the production side, LiPF6 production pulled back MoM, mainly due to persistent weakness in demand. From the perspective of end-use demand, as the NEV purchase tax policy shifted from full exemption to a 50% reduction effective January 1, 2026, domestic auto sales remained high in December 2025, which pulled forward part of the January market demand. This led to sluggish NEV sales in January, subsequently driving a contraction in demand within the power battery sector. Although the ESS sector performed strongly, with robust orders and some newly added capacity gradually entering the ramp-up stage, leading to a slight increase in ESS battery cell production, the drag from the decline in power battery demand was more significant. Ultimately, the overall demand for LiPF6 showed weakness. Meanwhile, affected by the continuous decline in LiPF6 prices, downstream electrolyte enterprises preferred to utilize previously stocked raw materials for production, resulting in reduced external purchase demand and low purchasing willingness, further suppressing market demand for LiPF6. Against this backdrop, LiPF6 enterprises, impacted by both falling demand and declining prices, proactively chose to cut production to cope with the pressure from the supply-demand imbalance.

On the price side, LiPF6 prices continued their downward trend in January, diverging somewhat from the movement of raw material costs. Although the price of its key raw material, lithium carbonate, fluctuated upward, directly pushing up the overall production cost of LiPF6, current market prices for LiPF6 remained above the cost line by a certain margin, leaving enterprises with some profit space. Consequently, prices struggled to rise in tandem with costs. More critically, weakening demand led to a looser supply-demand pattern. Coupled with some traders actively reducing prices to accelerate capital turnover, this further intensified downward pressure on prices. Ultimately, despite rising costs, LiPF6 prices still showed a downward trend in January.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lü 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Mengqi Xu 021-20707868

Xuejie Hu 021-20707858

Bolin Chen 021-51666836

Yizhou Wang 021-51595909