The market has entered a semi-holiday mode, with iron ore prices continuing to be in the doldrums [SMM Brief Review].

Today, iron ore futures weakened, with the most-traded contract I2605 settling at 761.5 yuan/mt, down 0.46% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell 1-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, mostly following the market trend, while steel mills showed limited inquiries and largely maintained a wait-and-see stance. Overall market trading sentiment was sluggish.
On the fundamental data side, SMM statistics showed total iron ore shipments last week reached 34.8 million mt, up 13.3% WoW. Shipments from mainstream countries such as Australia and Brazil, as well as non-mainstream countries like India, all increased. Meanwhile, SMM statistics indicated China's iron ore port arrivals were 27.63 million mt, down 5.9% WoW.
Looking ahead, although the recent rebound in port pick-up volume coupled with the pullback in port arrivals has led to a phased easing of supply-side pressure, visible port inventory overall continues to fluctuate at highs, with no clear destocking inflection point emerging yet, and the suppressive effect from the inventory side remains. Demand side, as the Chinese New Year approaches, steel mills' restocking activities have largely concluded, raw material procurement pace slowed down, and support for iron ore prices significantly weakened. Additionally, the macro and news fronts are currently in a relative vacuum period, with the market lacking substantial positive drivers. Therefore, in the short term, iron ore prices are expected to struggle to break away from the weak pattern and may continue to fluctuate at lows.