Next week, the key macroeconomic data will include China's official manufacturing PMI for July, the US's ADP employment figures for July, the US's core PCE price index annual rate for June, the US's unemployment rate for July, and the US's seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for July. Additionally, important events include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Fed announcing its interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged. Meanwhile, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will travel to Sweden from July 27 to 30 for economic and trade talks with the US side, mainly focusing on the US's upcoming implementation of tariffs on August 12.
Regarding LME lead, the progress of US tariff negotiations has been positive, easing market pessimism. Coupled with the US President's continuous pressure on the US Fed to cut interest rates, the US dollar index has weakened, and non-ferrous metals have generally stopped falling and rebounded. Meanwhile, overseas lead and zinc mine production has decreased, putting significant pressure on lead concentrate supply, which also provides some support for lead prices. It is expected that the center of LME lead's operation will move higher next week, reaching $2,000-2,065/mt.
Domestically, for SHFE lead, some primary lead smelters are still undergoing maintenance and have not fully resumed production, leading to prominent regional supply tightness. Spot discounts have narrowed and are trading towards premiums (against SMM #1 lead prices), which may boost lead prices to hold up well. Regarding secondary lead, the resumption of production is gradually progressing, and there are signs of improvement in the inverted price relationship between secondary refined lead and primary lead. Before the price spread between the two reverses, it will still support lead price increases. If premiums turn into discounts, it will mean that this factor is no longer considered favorable. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE lead contract will operate within the range of 16,800-17,100 yuan/mt next week.
Spot price forecast: 16,700-16,950 yuan/mt. With the resolution of month-end factors and the initiation of new long-term contracts by downstream enterprises for the new month, procurement volumes for spot lead ingots may relatively decrease. Meanwhile, as lead prices stop falling and rebound, downstream risk-aversion sentiment eases, and it is expected that some purchasing demand will be released, with the two roughly offsetting each other. On the supply side, on the one hand, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and primary lead enterprises also have expectations for resuming production. Next week, the circulation volume in the spot market will relatively increase, and spot premium trading will be difficult to rise further, and there is even an expectation for narrowing premiums.
