》View SMM Metal Prices, Data, and Market Analysis
》Subscribe to View Historical Spot Price Trends of SMM Metals
This week (February 10-14), the weekly average price range of Yangshan copper premiums for B/L transactions was $53-69/mt, QP March, with an average price of $61/mt, down $2/mt WoW. Warehouse warrants were $57-71/mt, with an average price of $63.8/mt, down $3.53/mt WoW, QP February-March. EQ copper CIF B/L ranged from $3.4/mt to $17.4/mt, with an average price of $10.4/mt, up $0.4/mt WoW, QP March. As of 15:00 on February 13, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2503 contract was 8.17, with an import loss of approximately -700 yuan/mt. As of Friday, the LME 3M-Feb contango was C$50.55/mt, and the February-to-March date swap fee spread was C$0.6/mt.
Currently, the spot price for pyro high-quality copper warehouse warrants is $68/mt, mainstream pyro copper is $61/mt, and hydrometallurgical copper is $54/mt. High-quality copper B/L is $70/mt, mainstream pyro copper is around $61/mt, and hydrometallurgical copper is $52/mt. CIF B/L EQ copper ranges from $2/mt to $16/mt, with an average price of $9/mt.
This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, and transactions in the US dollar-denominated copper market cooled. At the beginning of the week, suppliers' offers remained firm, with spot prices for long-term two-brand cargoes exceeding $70/mt. The market held a tight supply outlook for March port arrivals. By mid-week, import losses expanded to approximately -600 yuan/mt, and domestic brand warehouse warrants were heavily sold in the market. The transaction center for spot prices fell continuously, and near-month B/L prices were also affected. Sellers' enthusiasm for shipments weakened, and buyers lacked import motivation, leading the market into a phase of weak supply and demand. As the LME February date approached, a large number of shorts rolled over positions from February to March, causing the LME copper February-to-March structure to plummet from a contango of $36/mt on February 13 to near $0/mt, with the price spread almost flattening. Meanwhile, due to the rally in copper prices across COMEX, LME, and SHFE, the import loss for the SHFE copper 2502 contract expanded to over -900 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, the export window is expected to open, and Chinese smelters may begin planning export opportunities. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the LME Asia region and their impact on total inventory recovery. Port arrivals in mid-to-late March are expected to decrease significantly, leading to tighter supply in the US dollar-denominated copper market. However, premiums are unlikely to rise in the short term due to pressure from the SHFE/LME price ratio, and the price spread between registered copper brands is expected to widen.
According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday (February 13), copper inventories in domestic bonded zones increased by 7,100 mt WoW to 35,400 mt compared to the previous week (February 6). Among them, Shanghai bonded inventory rose by 6,400 mt WoW to 28,300 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory increased by 700 mt WoW to 7,100 mt. This week's increase in bonded zone inventory was as expected and was still driven by exports from domestic smelters. However, the digestion of unreported inventory by processing material enterprises will take time, and warehouse warrant supply remains relatively loose in the short term. As the export window opened this week, some domestic smelters plan to increase export volumes, and bonded zone inventories are expected to continue growing next week.
》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database
