In January, the national NPI metal content decreased by approximately 12.66% MoM. In February, the metal content is expected to increase by approximately 3.16% MoM [SMM Analysis].

Published: Jan 26, 2025 12:48

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[SMM Analysis: National NPI Metal Content Down Approximately 12.66% MoM in January, Expected to Rise Approximately 3.16% MoM in February] In January 2025, the national NPI production (physical content) decreased by approximately 10.65% MoM, and the metal content decreased by approximately 12.66% MoM...

SMM reported on January 26 that

China's NPI production in January 2025 decreased by approximately 10.65% MoM in physical content and by about 12.66% MoM in metal content. Both physical content and metal content of NPI production declined in January, mainly due to the continued weak performance of high-grade NPI prices and the firm nickel ore prices after the Philippines entered the rainy season, which expanded smelters' losses and led some smelters to reduce production loads. Additionally, environmental protection issues were prominent in north China during winter, with a certain smelter in north China entering a maintenance period, affecting the supply of high-grade NPI. Low-grade NPI production in both physical and metal content also declined, impacted by negative feedback from downstream 200-series stainless steel, coupled with firm low-grade nickel ore prices, prompting some integrated stainless steel mills to lower production loads. Furthermore, smelters primarily producing low-grade NPI took early holidays ahead of the Chinese New Year, reducing production days and keeping output at a low level.

In February 2025, China's NPI production is expected to decrease by approximately 2.17% MoM in physical content but increase by about 3.16% MoM in metal content. According to the SMM survey, after the Chinese New Year holiday, all high-grade NPI smelters across the country are expected to resume normal production, with output gradually recovering. The decline in physical content of NPI production in February is mainly attributed to low-grade NPI, as 200-series stainless steel consumption is still in the recovery phase after the holiday, and low-grade nickel ore prices are expected to remain firm. Under losses, some enterprises are likely to increase the proportion of externally purchased scrap and supplement with some nickel-chromium alloys. As a result, the total NPI production in February is expected to see a slight increase.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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