SMM Analysis On China September Alumina Production And October Forecast

According to SMM data, in September 2024 (30 days), China's metallurgical-grade alumina production decreased by 4.27% MoM, up 2.69% YoY. As of October 10, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity increased by 1 million mt MoM, with actual operating capacity down 1.30% MoM, and an operating rate of 82.71%. From January to September 2024, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina cumulative production increased by 3.66% YoY.

By region:

Shanxi: The operating rate in September was 76.1%, down 2.01% from August, mainly due to tight ore supply and some capacity still under suspension for technical upgrades.

Henan: The operating rate in September was 61.6%, down 2.35% from August, mainly due to maintenance of some alumina refinery production lines in early September and some companies unable to increase production due to ore supply issues, resulting in a slight decline in the operating rate.

Guizhou: The operating rate in September was 84.0%, up 6.61% from August.

Hebei: The operating rate in September was 91.3%, down 12.06% from August, mainly due to overproduction after maintenance recovery in August and maintenance in early to mid-September, leading to a decline in production.

Guangxi: The operating rate in September was 92.1%, up 2.71% from August, mainly due to a local alumina refinery ramping up to full production mid-month.

Shandong: The operating rate in September was 90.3%, down 5.40% from August, mainly due to maintenance at some local alumina refineries, leading to a decline in production. Additionally, a new 1 million mt production line was completed at a local alumina refinery, with no contribution to September's production as it started in early October.

October forecast: The SMM survey indicates that despite plans for production reduction and technical upgrades in other regions, new capacity at a Shandong alumina refinery will start, and maintenance at a Hebei and a Guangxi alumina refinery will end, returning to normal production. It is expected that the daily average alumina production in China will slightly increase in October. On the raw material side, there is no further news on the resumption of domestic ore production, and supply remains tight. Import ore supply is expected to decrease due to the rainy season in Guinea, indicating a tight supply of bauxite, which continues to limit the increase in alumina operating capacity. SMM expects China's daily average metallurgical-grade alumina production to increase by 1.73% MoM in October 2024. Continued attention is needed on potential alumina demand brought by aluminum resumption in south-west China and the pace of new alumina capacity release.