SMM China July Primary Lead Production and August Forecast

In July 2024, China's primary lead production was 304,500 mt, up 7.73% MoM but down 4.75% YoY. From January to July, the total production decreased by 4.67% YoY. The total capacity of the surveyed enterprises in 2024 was 6.0063 million mt.

According to the survey, the production of primary lead smelters in July mostly recovered, primarily in medium and large enterprises, with the monthly output increasing by over 20,000 mt as expected. Although some smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong experienced reduced output due to routine maintenance or equipment failures, more smelters resumed production after maintenance in July, mainly in Henan, Hunan, Liaoning, and Yunnan, thus the overall upward trend in primary lead production was not affected.

In August, the production of primary lead smelters continued to recover, with an expected MoM increase in output. Smelters that resumed production in mid-to-late July, such as those in Anhui and Inner Mongolia, will see further output increases in August. Smelters that underwent maintenance in July, such as those in Henan and Guangdong, will resume production in August. Additionally, the import window for lead concentrate was open in July, with favorable import profits, leading to increased raw material inventories for some lead smelters, which also supports the increase in primary lead production in August. According to SMM forecasts, primary lead production in August will increase by over 10,000 mt compared to July, reaching 316,000 mt.