China's alumina exports surged in June MoM, and imports are expected to remain low in July [SMM Analysis]

According to Chinese customs, in June 2024, China exported 157,100 mt of alumina, with a cumulative export of 810,700 mt from January to June 2024. In June 2024, imports were 37,700 mt, down 58.80% MoM and down 13.93% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to June 2024 were 1.185 million mt, up 56.04% YoY. Net imports of alumina in June were -119,400 mt, with a cumulative net import of 374,300 mt from January to June 2024. (Based on 8-digit customs code: 28182000)

Analyzing the import sources, in June, China's alumina imports were primarily from Australia (31,500 mt), Japan (2,100 mt), Germany (1,300 mt), and France (1,300 mt), accounting for 83.56%, 5.52%, 3.57%, and 3.34% respectively. According to SMM data, since May this year, due to supply cuts in the overseas market, overseas alumina prices have surged significantly, and the domestic spot import window for alumina has remained closed. June imports decreased by 58.80% MoM and 13.93% YoY.

Specifically, on the supply side of overseas alumina, according to Alcoa's Q2 production data, alumina output dropped to 2.53 million mt, mainly due to the production cut at the Kwinana refinery. According to Rio Tinto's H1 2024 report, the rupture of a third-party-operated Queensland natural gas pipeline in March continued to impact the Gladstone operations, leading to a 10% YoY decline in Q2 alumina production to 1.7 million mt. Consequently, Rio Tinto has revised its full-year alumina production forecast down from the previous 7.6-7.9 million mt to 7-7.3 million mt, a reduction of about 600,000 mt. Rio Tinto expects the natural gas supply to the Gladstone plant to resume normalcy by the end of 2024. According to SMM data, in July, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production was 4.88 million mt, and overseas aluminium production was 2.54 million mt. Therefore, there remains a certain supply gap in the overseas alumina market, and SMM expects short-term overseas alumina prices to have some support at the bottom.

Overall, considering the expected trends in domestic and international alumina prices, the spot imports window for alumina is unlikely to open in the short term. Taking shipping schedules into account, SMM expects alumina imports in July to remain at a low level. We will continue to pay attention to the trends in domestic and international alumina prices and the production dynamics of producers.