SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Jun 21)

Market: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2408 aluminum contract opened at 20,595 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,630 yuan/mt and a low of 20,550 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,630 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.17%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,493 /mt, reached a high of $2,525.5/mt and a low of $2,491/mt, and closed at $2,521/mt, up $31.5/mt, an increase of 1.27%.

Summary: On the macro level, the US Fed's stance on rate cuts has been wavering, but global liquidity is gradually becoming abundant. Escalating regional conflicts provided support for the prices of commodities, primarily gold as a safe haven and crude oil. On the fundamentals, the market has gradually digested the impact of weakening consumption, and the relatively low aluminum prices prompted some downstream restocking at lower levels. Social inventory showed destocking yesterday. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to see a slight rebound.