Macroscopically, US inflation data unexpectedly cooled, the US Fed keeping rates unchanged, but the dot plot and Powell's speech were hawkish, leading to zinc prices being significantly influenced by macro factors. From a fundamental perspective, the tight supply of ore continues, although the zinc concentrate import window is currently open, subsequent inflows of imported ore may increase. But considering the lack of inflows of imported ore and the slow resumption and transportation of European smelters, the short-term increase in domestic inflows is limited. At the same time, domestic zinc concentrate depletion and safety and environmental inspections limit output increase, with domestic zinc concentrate production slightly declining in May, and domestic smelters' raw material inventories falling to less than 17 days. If the tight supply issue cannot be effectively alleviated, the transmission of tight supply to smelters’ production cuts is only a matter of time. In terms of consumption, although social inventories continue to deplete, it is mainly due to previous on-demand restocking, with actual end-user improvement yet to be seen.
The model predicts that the average price range of SMM 0# zinc ingot from June 13-19 will be [23,365, 24,805], with an average of 24,000. The unit is yuan/mt, an extreme price range of [22,840, 25,330], a normal price range of [23,190, 24,980], and a conservative price range of [23,540, 24,630]. This week's price is expected to be sideways or weakly fluctuating. The support range is [23,190, 23,540], and the resistance range is [24,630, 24,980].
Overall, macro factors dominate zinc prices, with little change in fundamentals. Considering the poor macro sentiment, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downside space is limited.
