SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Jun 18)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2407 aluminum contract opened at 20,240 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,380 yuan/mt, a low of 20,230 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,350 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.35%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,519.5/mt, reached a high of $2,523.5/mt, a low of $2,476.5/mt, and closed at $2,507.5/mt, down $15.5/mt, a decrease of 0.61%.

Summary: On the macro level, the US Fed's stance on rate cuts has been wavering, and the expectation of rate cuts within the year has weakened. Escalating regional conflicts provided support for the prices of safe-haven assets like gold and major commodities like crude oil. On the fundamentals, the arrival of the off-season together with increasing overseas market frictions led to insufficient orders for aluminum processing enterprises and a reduction in operating rates, heightening market concerns about downstream aluminum demand. After the withdrawal of long funds, aluminum prices adjusted to a low level.