H1 Review of Silicon Metal Supply and Demand, H2 Supply Pressure Will Remain Strong

According to SMM, in January-May, China's silicon metal output totalled 1.824 million mt, up 28% YoY. The output of silicon metal (Si≥97%) and secondary silicon metal was 238,000 mt. Combined with other silicon supplies, the total supply of silicon elements in January-May stood at 2.139 million mt, up 27% YoY. The silicon supply in 2024 H1 is expected to total 2.633 million mt, up 32% YoY.

Demand side, according to SMM, domestic downstream sectors consumed 1.888 million mt of silicon (excluding exports) in January-May, up 30% YoY. Specifically, polysilicon consumed 1.022 million mt (+57% YoY), accounting for 54%. Silicone consumed 533,000 mt, accounting for 28%. AlSi alloy consumed 254,000 mt, accounting for 13%.

In 2024 H1, the proportions of silicon consumption in polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy sectors is expected to be 58%, 26%, and 12% respectively.

In terms of exports, according to customs data, the exports of silicon metal totalled 231,900 mt in January-April, up 21% YoY. The imports were 9,000 mt, up 799% YoY. The net exports reached 223,000 mt, up 7% YoY.

Regarding social inventories, as of June 7, SMM statistics showed that the silicon metal inventory in social delivery warehouses as well as general social warehouses in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming was 394,000 mt, an increase of 40,000 mt from the beginning of January. In 2024 H1, the social warehouses showed a slow increase in silicon metal inventory.

In January-May, the overall supply showed a slight deficit. In June, with the continuous increase in supply and the reduction in downstream polysilicon production, H1 supply is expected to turn slightly ample, with a surplus of about 50,000 mt. In H2, the supply from Yunnan and Sichuan during the rainy season is highly likely to increase compared to H1. Additionally, new silicon metal capacity projects are planned by companies such as TBEA, Tongwei, Trina Solar, East Hope Lanzhou, and Baofeng. Demand side, the growth of downstream consumption slowed down in a year-on-year manner. Some polysilicon capacity experienced output cuts in June due to losses. In addition, with a high base in 2023 H2, the year-on-year growth of silicon metal demand from polysilicon is expected to fall to around 20% in 2024 H2 from 50% forecasted in H1. Overall, inventory growth in H2 is expected to increase. As the supply pressure remains, spot silicon metal prices may continue to fluctuate at the low end of the range.