Lead prices to continue to move rangebound at highs

Key economic data due this week includes eurozone flash manufacturing PMI in April, US annualised new home sales in March, US flash annualised first quarter real GDP, US annualised core PCE price index in March and University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in April.

In terms of LME lead prices, overseas funds coupled with tight ore supply ensured LME lead prices moved at high levels. LME lead inventory remained high around 270,000 mt. The contango LME cash to the three-month contract narrowed and stood at $29.16/mt as of April 18. While short-term fundamental support is insufficient, capital factors can keep LME lead prices strong, moving between $2,145-2,225/mt.

The production cuts at smelters and the funding factors have pushed SHFE lead prices above the 17,000 yuan/mt mark and to a nearly seven-month high. The price spread between futures contracts and spot cargoes widened sharply to 400-500 yuan/mt. This drove sellers to deliver their cargoes, and shipments in the spot markets decreased significantly. The inventory of primary lead smelters increased while that in social warehouses decreased. This, together with price difference factors, drove downstream companies to purchase secondary lead. In view of funds, lead prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in the near term. The most active SHFE lead contract prices are expected to stand between 16,800-17,600 yuan/mt this week.

The spot prices are expected to move between 16,500-17,000 yuan/mt. In terms of primary lead, the supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the smelters of major delivery brands are undergoing maintenance, limiting the supply of lead ingots. Meanwhile, the large price spread between futures contracts and spot cargoes has prompted deliveries to warehouses, reducing spot supply in circulation. Therefore, the spot cargoes may maintain a high premium. In terms of secondary lead, as the supply of battery scrap is tight, the raw material inventory of some smelters is lacking, leading to production cuts. The discounts of secondary refined lead have narrowed, but it is only reflected in the areas where production has been reduced. In terms of lead consumption, some lead-acid battery companies reduced production due to the off-season. This, combined with the high lead prices, sidelined downstream buyers.