NPI Production Review & Forecast

China’s NPI output in metal content rose in March

China’s NPI output stood at 27,700 mt in nickel content (up 5.95% MoM) or 662,000 mt in physical content (down 2.82% MoM) in March. Specifically, high-grade NPI was about 225,000 mt in physical content or 211,900 mt in metal content; low-grade NPI was 437,000 mt in physical content (down 30,000 mt in physical content) or 64,900 mt in metal content. The NPI output decline in physical content is mainly contributed by slow approval of Indonesia's RKAB and the rainy season in the Philippines. The short-term tight supply of nickel ore plus ongoing losses caused some small and medium-sized NPI plants to stop production. The NPI output increase in metal content is attributable to production resumption of some integrated steel mills in March after they stopped production for concentrated maintenance during the Spring Festival in February. At present, affected by high nickel ore prices and low NPI prices in March, domestic NPI production has declined. It is estimated that the domestic NPI output will reach around 27,000 mt in metal content in April, down 2.52% MoM. SMM research showed some domestic small and medium-sized NPI smelters suspended production due to losses, and the time for resumption has not been determined.

Indonesian NPI output increased in March

Indonesia produced 117,900 mt (Ni content) of NPI in March, up 3.51% MoM and 23.9% YoY. In Q1, output rose 19% YoY to 353,700 mt in nickel content. Caused by the limited RKAB approval, smelters are still purchasing nickel ore at a high premium. However, tight supply of nickel ore pushed raw material inventory to fall in March. Considering Lebaran in April, the output of high-grade NPI in April is expected to be 121,000 mt in nickel content, a slight increase of 2.66% MoM. If RKAB approval is still slower than expected, NPI output will be influenced in the future.

Please do not hesitate to contact Jean at jeantang@smm.cn or 86-19946295759 if you have any question or inquiry.