SMM forecast for lead ingot exports in March [SMM analysis]

SHANGHAI, Mar 25 (SMM) - According to customs data, the export volume of refined lead in February 2024 was 1,799 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 37.77%, and a year-on-year decrease of 87.94%; the total export volume of refined lead and lead semis from January to February was 8,945 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 77.46%. In February 2024, the import volume of refined lead was 151 tons, a month-on-month increase of 50.64%; the total import volume of refined lead and lead semis from January to February was 251 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.79%.

In January 2024, many domestic primary lead refineries were undergoing maintenance and secondary lead refineries were shut down under environmentally-driven protection restrictions. The supply of lead ingots was significantly tightened, and lead prices rose strongly and reached a nearly 2-month high; at the same time, after Christmas, LME lead prices also rose due to downstream restocking, and lead ingot export conditions were not optimistic throughout January.

Domestic downstream battery manufacturers were actively stocking up before the CNY in early February, and there was less supply of lead ingots in the market; market transactions were basically stagnant due to CNY in mid-February, limiting exports in the first half of February; after the holiday, due to the delivery of the SHFE 2402 contract and lead ingots accumulation during CNY, SHFE lead prices fell below 16,000 yuan/mt. LME lead prices performed better.

LME lead inventory at the beginning of March was as high as 190,000 tons, a seven-year high. As of March 20, LME lead inventory had accumulated to 267,000 tons; while domestic inventories were far lower, which was not conducive to the export of lead ingots.