Iron ore prices to swing narrowly

Fundamentals of iron ore softened last week. Overseas shipments returned to normal last week, remaining above 30 million mt. Port arrivals also hiked back to higher level than last year. Maintenance of some steel mills led to another decline in pig iron production in Hebei. There were no expected policies from the Two Sessions held last week, but economic growth rate in 2024 may still maintain 5%, boosting market sentiment, according to the annual report. Iron ore prices appeared volatile last week, and still declined. In terms of spot prices at ports, the spot prices of PB fines in Shandong dropped 21 yuan/mt WoW.
Looking at this week, a continuous rise in construction steel demand will slow down rising inventory. Moreover, raw material price rout will increase profits of steel mills. Therefore, possible plans of restart of some BFs may add pig iron output. However, import data unveiled more than 8% year-on-year rise in ore imports in January-February. Heavy piling-up of inventory at ports will tame ore price hike. Macro news will also affect iron ore prices. It is expected that the ore prices will still swing narrowly.