China exported less steel to Europe and the US and much more steel to emerging market. The “Belt and Road Initiative” contributed a lot to China’s steel exports. West Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Europe and Central Asia were areas with relatively good economic development and dense population in the countries along the route. Steel product demand increased in recent years. In 2023, the growth rates of China's steel exports to these four regions were 63.1%, 35.22%, 163.22% and 98.52% respectively.
SMM predicted that direct steel exports will decrease by 11.37% YoY in 2024, mainly taking into account the following aspects: 1) risk of trade friction; 2) risk of investigation and prosecution of paid exports; 3) high likelihood of overseas supply uptick.
However, according to SMM survey, planned exports remained high in January, and some steel mills will have saturated export orders before March. Given low base number in January-February 2023, SMM predicted that steel exports in January-February 2024 are still expected to maintain positive growth year-on-year!
