According to customs data, China's magnesium ingot exports in 2023 were 213,000 mt, a year-on-year decrease of 21.5%. In 2023, the cumulative export volume of China's top five magnesium ingot exporters: the Netherlands, India, Canada, Japan, and South Korea were 128,000 tons, accounting for 40% of the total magnesium ingot export volume in 2023. Among them, 55,000 mt were exported to India, accounting for 26%; 25,000 mt were exported to Brazil, accounting for 11%; 18,000 mt were exported to Canada, accounting for 8%; 17,000 mt were exported to Japan, accounting for 8%; and 14,000 mt were exported to South Korea, accounting for 7% .
In 2023, from the perspective of China's magnesium ingot export market, the proportion of China's magnesium ingots exported to Europe accounted for as high as 39%. In addition, considering that Europe is also an important export region for magnesium products such as magnesium alloys and magnesium powder, the number of Chinese magnesium products exported to Europe remains at about 50%; at the same time, the increase in sea freight caused by the Houthi armed incident will continue to affect the export volume of magnesium products. It is worth noting that the “Belt and Road Initiative” has also contributed a lot to China’s magnesium ingot exports. The demand for magnesium ingots in West Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and other regions has increased year by year.
SMM predicts that direct exports of magnesium ingots will decrease by 11% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, mainly considering the following aspects: (1) The risk of geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea route has suddenly escalated. Affected by the situation in the Red Sea, European and American orders may be delayed due to skyrocketing freight rates and cancellation, thus affecting China's magnesium ingot export trade volume and quota; (2) As the European economy has entered a slowdown or downturn, demand in European countries has been weak; (3) Insufficient external demand has made it difficult for China's magnesium ingot exports to increase prices to Europe buyers and pass on rising freight costs, so traders have limited willingness to accept foreign trade orders, which will lead to a reduction in magnesium ingot exports.
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