SMM nickel morning comments

On November 26, the most active SHFE nickel contract prices opened at 130970 yuan/mt and closed at 129140 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1760 yuan/mt from the closing price of the previous trading day. The trading volume increased by 42530 lots, and the open interest increased by 46811 lots. Both long and short increased their positions. This also shows that the short side has a firmer attitude than the long side and is more confident that the market prices will continue to fall; at the same time, the long is unwilling to admit defeat and is also increasing its positions at low levels. If prices drop overly significantly, bulls will enter the market. This, combined with the retreat of shorts, will push up nickel prices. From a macro perspective, the problem of shipping conflicts has been alleviated, some shipping companies may restart routes in the Red Sea region, and the macro bullish sentiment has gradually weakened. From a fundamental point of view, due to the downward trend in nickel sulfate prices and other raw material prices combined with the recent sideways trading of SHFE nickel, some companies that had incurred losses earlier have returned to profits. Some smelters have also resumed normal production. Supply is expected to be ample. It is expected that the nickel price may fall further in the near term.