SMM analysis of lithium carbonate stocks held by different players in the industry chain

Weak downstream orders in November, with cathode and battery plants relying on long-term contracts. Post-maintenance smelter re-openings boosted supply, raising November smelter inventories MoM.

As of November 30, 2023, smelters held 37,865 mt for ~27 days, cathode firms 11,768 mt for ~7 days.

Amid falling lithium salt prices, cathode producers remain cautious, buying mainly on long-term contracts with few spot purchases, keeping inventories low. Salt production cuts lag behind downstream, likely increasing salt factory stocks.

As lithium salt prices keep falling, nearing past lows, traders will maintain a lower safety level of inventory. Battery cell end, with earlier stockpiles, buys on need but may slightly raise inventory pre-holiday in early 2024.