Sharp drop in US dollar and promising domestic economy bolstered copper prices

Copper contract prices remained high in the week ending December 15. Prices dropped early in the week before rebounding on the US dollar falling below 103. The US non-farm payroll data for November recorded 199,000, higher than the previous reading and expectations. Although the US employment data was stronger than expected, the market did not waver in that the Federal Reserve would suspend interest rate hikes in December. But the market increased its bets on the postponement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2024; the US dollar index thus rose to 104 along with US debt. The November CPI data recorded 3.1% as expected, which reassured the market that the Federal Reserve would remain on hold at the December interest rate meeting. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 grew, sending the dollar plummeting. That buoyed copper prices. On Thursday, the Fed announced that it would keep interest rates stable; the US dollar fell below 103, pushing up copper prices.

The market generally expects the European Central Bank to continue suspending interest rate increases in December, and expectations for an interest rate cut by the bank in March next year increased. The euro rose against the US dollar, closing with gains for four consecutive days. The market expects the Bank of England to suspend interest rate hikes in December, but its "hawkish" attitude is unlikely to be reversed. There is no clear direction for the timing and extent of interest rate cuts next year. The Economic Work Conference of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China gave new directions for monetary and fiscal policies in 2024, and social financing increased year-on-year. Market sentiment continued to improve, and copper futures contract prices rose further.