Fitch Solutions’ BMI raises 2024 iron ore price forecast, citing rebound of market confidence, but is bearish on prices in the long run

In the short term, cost support driven by energy price increases, combined with a relatively small supply-demand imbalance, suggested that sheets & plates prices would continue to fluctuate at highs with limited room for correction. Risk-wise, after today's daytime session, the U.S. side indicated that the U.S. and Iran were close to reaching a deal, causing Brent crude oil futures to plunge sharply. In addition, steel prices rose too quickly in this round, with actual demand realization remaining weak. Apparent steel demand in May was expected to peak and pull back, and supply-demand imbalances in the steel sector would slowly accumulate in mid-to-late May. Attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East situation and the pace of demand pullback in China.

May 6, 2026 — Iron ore prices strengthened significantly in today's trading, with the benchmark I2609 futures contract closing at 816 RMB/ton, up 2.84% from the previous trading session. Spot port prices rose by 10–18 RMB/ton compared to the prior day. Traders showed increased quoting activity, while steel mills mainly purchased for essential needs with limited inquiries; overall spot market transactions remained subdued.

[SMM Hot-Rolled Coil Daily Trading] On May 6, the combined daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil among SMM's sample enterprises across four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) totaled 17,260 mt, up 930 mt DoD (+5.7%), up 88.43% YoY (solar calendar basis), and up 35.91% YoY (lunar calendar basis).