Imported iron ore prices may swing narrowly

SMM shipping data showed that global shipments of iron ore and the proportion of iron ore shipped to China increased last week. However, unloading efficiency at Chinese ports declined due to poor weather. Therefore, the amount of iron ore arrivals at ports inched down. At the same time, pig iron production remained unchanged last week. Supply and demand were still in a tight balance, having minimal impact on ore prices. However, bolstered by strong macro expectations and overseas mining emergencies, iron ore prices rose sharply at the beginning of last week, triggering joint supervision by the three departments, thereby significantly dragging down DCE I2401 iron ore contract. In a word, iron ore prices first rose and then fell last week, and the prices continued to move upward. In terms of spot prices at ports, the spot prices of PB fines in Shandong gained 30-35 yuan/mt WoW.

Looking at this week, with expectations of more port arrivals, iron ore inventory at ports will keep mounting, while short-term pig iron output will maintain current level. Therefore, supply cost for ore prices will slightly weaken. Meanwhile, the overall macro policy will be positive, given that players will still have expectations for the important meeting in December. There will be regulatory pressure and environmental protection-related production restrictions in winter. Iron ore prices may have difficulty of trending up and may keep swinging narrowly.