Despite output cuts in Yunnan, soft demand and growing inventory to prevent SHFE aluminium from rising

The Federal Reserve's pause in rate hikes meets market expectations, yet high inflation abroad raises concerns about weak foreign demand. Despite domestic policy boosts, the industrial chain impact will take time. Fundamentally, Yunnan region's aluminium production cuts have started, relieving future domestic supply pressure. Yet, with poor consumer performance and weak demand, domestic aluminium ingot inventory grew and spot prices maintained discount against SHFE. Soft demand will counteract positive impact from production cuts. We maintain our short-term 'buy on dips' view, anticipating the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract to range between 18,900 and 19,600 yuan/mt in the week ending November 10. LME aluminium may fluctuate between $2,190 and 2,300/mt.