SHANGHAI, October 30(SMM) –
On the macro aspect, even though the Fed hasn't halted its current interest rate hike process, geopolitical concerns and recent dovish comments from Fed officials have caused a decrease in the market's expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Traders put the chance of interest rates remaining unchanged in November and December at 89.6% and 70.5%, respectively. This relieved some of the macro pressure on SHFE nickel. Looking at the fundamentals, recent trading in the spot market was sluggish. When looking at downstream demand by industry, the demand in the alloy sector remained relatively stable, supported by military orders. In the stainless steel sector, the reduced production of 300-series stainless steel is expected to continue until November, leading to a decline in the recent demand for raw materials like pure nickel. The fall in demand is also one of the main reasons for the recent accumulation of pure nickel inventory. With the ongoing increase in domestic electrowinning nickel production, SMM anticipated that refined nickel production in October will be around 22,800 mt, marking an increase of about 3.2% compared to September. The current increase in domestic nickel plate production cannot be fully absorbed by domestic demand. This has resulted in some nickel plates becoming warehouse receipts or accumulating as social inventory. Furthermore, some nickel plates were exported, explaining the continued accumulation of warehouse receipts and social inventory since September and the significant increase in export volume in the last two months. In summary, the fundamental situation for pure nickel currently remains weak, but the bearish sentiment on the macro level has slightly eased.
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