On October 24, the most active SHFE nickel contract prices opened at 148200 yuan/mt and closed at 147560 yuan/mt, a decrease of 1150 yuan/mt from the closing price of the previous trading day. The intraday trading was weaker than that of the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased by 3988 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1704 lots. The longs were actively closing their positions. The decrease in trading volume shows that longs were more rational in closing positions. Therefore, the prices dropped moderately, and the probability of a sustained decline is high.
On the macro front, Federal Reserve officials frequently made dovish statements, and expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve continued to cool. The market's expectations that the interest rate range will remain unchanged in November and December rose to 89.6% and 70.5%. From a fundamental perspective, spot market transactions continued to weaken, and overall demand declined. In summary, it is expected that the nickel price may fall further in the near term.
