Analysis of China’s stainless steel imports and exports in August and forcast for September

China’s stainless steel imports stood at 192,900 mt in August, up 35.53% but down 56.88% YoY, according to SMM statistics. China imported 145,500 mt of stainless steel from Indonesia, up 17.56% MoM, but down 56.88% YoY. Among them, HRC imports rested at 5,800 mt (mostly goods under special customs supervision), down 8.3% MoM and 33.51% YoY, while cold-rolled coil imports stood at 87,000 mt, up 24.12% MoM but down 20.15% YoY. It is understood that since mid-August, Indonesia’s suspension of issuance of nickel ore quotas offered a big boost to nickel ore prices, bringing with it higher costs of nickel downstream products such as NPI. With a strong bullish sentiment on stainless steel costs and downstream replenishing demand, China imported more Indonesia-origin stainless steel in August, and had tighter stainless steel production schedule in September. Domestic stainless steel imports are expected to decline in September amid ample domestic supply and tight raw materials affecting stainless steel production Indonesia.

China’s stainless steel exports were 401,900 mt in August, up 2.28% MoM and 0.64% YoY, according to SMM statistics. It was reported that the proportion of stainless steel exported to India was 19.23%, up 31% MoM. Exports in August increased by about 37,000 mt MoM, but exports to top ten destinations rose merely 2,500 mt. Top ten destinations accounted for 59% of China’s total exports in August, compared with 60% in June and July. India still maintained a high economic growth rate and robust stainless steel demand in August, but its imports from China declined. In addition, the Indian Ministry of Finance was reviewing the proposal to impose countervailing duties on Chinese steel, and the propose will be officially materialized in September. India, Europe and the US will still have higher difficulty of importing stainless steel from China in September, while developing countries in southeast Asia such as Vietnam will still maintain high manufacturing PMI and an expanding stainless steel market, thereby probably leading to more China-origin stainless steel imports. In a word, SMM predicated that stainless steel exports are expected to decline in September.