Aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports continued to decline, with no turnaround in sight

SHANGHAI, Aug 8 (SMM) –

According to Customs data, June 2023 saw China's aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports drop to 224,500 mt, a 3% MoM and 34% YoY reduction. H1 2023 totals stood at 1.3932 million mt, marking a 28% YoY decrease.

Export volumes of aluminium plate/sheet and strip under different tariff codes have been falling since 2022, with tariff code 76061220 seeing notable declines. Its majority product, can stock, experienced an export boom in 2022 due to soaring overseas demand. However, in 2023, amid a global economic slowdown and resumed overseas aluminium production, Chinese exports faced stiff competition, with can stock exports recording over 50% declines for two months consecutively.

In June, the leading exporting provinces were Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, much like before. H1 2023 saw Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian as top exporters. These five contributed roughly 70% of total exports. The export structure remained unchanged, but export volumes from all regions saw a steady decline.

The target countries of China's aluminium plate/sheet and strip remained Mexico, South Korea, Canada, Vietnam, and the USA in H1 2023. Matching with source regions, H1 saw a collective drop in export volumes to these five countries. This suggests a broader downturn in global demand, impacting the export market.

SMM believes that the decline in China's aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports is mainly due to the decline in demand amid the global economic downturn, and there is no hope for an immediate recovery. On the other hand, due to the advantages of terminal demand diversification of the aluminium plate/sheet and strip industry, its demand resilience is relatively strong. Exports are expected to see limited decline moving forward. In the future, the monthly export volume of aluminium plate/sheet and strip is expected to hold largely steady at 200,000-250,000 mt. The annual export volume is expected to be between 2.6 and 2.7 million mt.