Spot Copper Prices in Guangdong Rose Significantly amid Plunging Copper Futures Prices and Sharp Inventory Declines

Spot quotes in Guangdong inched higher last week. Downstream stockpiling increased before the holiday, lowering inventories. Sellers raised their quotes. As of last Friday, high-quality copper was quoted with premiums of 60 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from a week earlier, and standard-quality copper was quoted with premiums of 40 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from a week earlier. Hydro-copper was quoted with discounts of 30 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt. Last Friday, the prices in Guangdong exceeded those in Shanghai by 10 yuan/mt. The price gap was so small that there was no opportunity for cargo transfer between the two regions.

As of last Friday, total inventories in Guangdong stood at 40,100 mt, a decline of 12,600 mt from a week earlier. The arriving shipments decreased 11,200 mt to 7,600 mt, and were still lower than the weekly average of 19,000 mt for 2022. The reasons for the decline included falling shipments from smelters to warehouses and smelters outside Guangdong reducing their shipments to Guangdong due to growing local demand.

Shipments of copper cathode leaving the warehouses in Guangdong grew 4,500 mt to 19,200 mt last week, flat from the weekly average of 19,500 mt for 2022. Sharply narrowed price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap drove electric cable plants to purchase copper cathode rod, pushing higher operating rates at copper rod plants using copper cathode as raw materials.

Shipments from smelters to warehouses will increase significantly during the Labour Day holidays. But closures of up to two days at some end-users will dent demand. To sum up, SMM expects supply to grow and demand to weaken after Labour Day holidays. At the same time, the inventory will grow and spot premiums should fall slightly.