The CICC research report pointed out that the annualised GDP in the first quarter of the United States was 1.1%, which was the third consecutive quarterly slowdown. In terms of sub-items, the drag on the economy was mainly due to the slowdown in inventory, while consumer spending remained stable.
CICC believes that although the U.S. economic performance has been resilient since the beginning of the year, it cannot change the downward trend of the economy. With the decline of bank deposits, in the future, either the banks will spontaneously "tighten credit" and the credit spread will expand; or the tight credit will not be obvious, and the Fed will continue to "tighten money" and the risk-free interest rate will rise. In either case, the final result will be an economic downturn. In addition, we must also be wary of the stickiness of inflation. In the first quarter, the US core PCE grew by an annualised rate of 4.9%, higher than the 4.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, and the overall PCE growth rate was also higher than that at the end of last year. Structural inflation may lead to a "stagflation" pattern in the economy, which will also bring more challenges to financial markets.
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