Weekly LME Lead Price Forecast (Apr 10-14, 2023)

SHANGHAI, Apr 10 (SMM) – The LME is closed on Monday for the Easter holiday. Upcoming US economic data that is worthy of close attention includes non-seasonally adjusted March CPI, March PPI, as well as March retail sales. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of its March policy meeting. With lingering impact of the European and US banking crisis, alongside stubbornly high inflation in the US and disappointing US employment data, the market is worried that the global economic recession might deepen. The minutes of the Fed’s March meeting may provide clues as regarding whether the Fed will raise interest rates in May.

LME lead inventory changed little last week. LME lead cash-to-3-month backwardation shrank to $16.49/mt as of April 6 amid falling LME lead prices, which will provide little support to lead prices. Natural gas inventories in Europe and the US increased amid rising temperature and extended strike in France, sending natural gas prices down. This will reduce lead smelters’ costs, providing incentive for them to ramp up their production.

LME Lead prices are expected to drop to $2,080-2,135/mt this week.