SMM Aluminium Morning Comment (Mar 20, 2023)

SHANGHAI, Mar 20 (SMM) -The most-traded SHFE 2304 aluminium contract opened at 18,200 yuan/mt at last Friday’s night session, with its high and low at 18,230 yuan/mt and 18,115 yuan/mt before closing at 18,125 yuan/mt, down 105 yuan/mt, or 0.58%. LME aluminium opened at $2,280.5/mt last Friday, with its high and low at $2,314/mt and $2,262/mt respectively before closing at $2,278/mt, a drop of $2/mt or 0.09%.

Macro factors dominated the movement of aluminium prices last week. Recent strong US economic data raised the risk of the Fed raising interest rates, but fears of US interest rate hike eased following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, sending the US dollar index lower. Downstream consumption improved, and social inventories of aluminium ingots fell sharply. As improving fundamentals counteracted the shock from macro headwinds, aluminium prices were somehow resilient to decline. Aluminium prices may go up this week, driven by falling inventories and improving spot transactions.