SMM Aluminium Morning Comment (Mar 11, 2023)

SHANGHAI, Mar 13 (SMM) -  The most-traded SHFE 2304 aluminium contract opened at 18,245 yuan/mt at last Friday’s night session and hovered around 18,250 yuan/mt before closing at 18,255 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.6%. LME aluminium opened at $2,324/mt last Friday and fell to $2,285/mt before closing at $2,306/mt, down 0.58%.

On the macro front, the market generally expects US interest rate hikes, and the US non-farm payrolls and inflation data will be released soon, keeping the macro atmosphere cautious. If the non-farm payrolls data exceeds expectations, aluminium prices will come under downward pressure. In terms of fundamentals, the positive impact from aluminium production reduction in Yunnan has been basically digested by the market. Downstream production was recovering slowly in the peak season, and social inventories of aluminium ingots have not entered destocking cycle. Lower alumina prices diminished cost support to aluminium prices, which may fluctuate weakly in the short term.