Macro Roundup (Aug 18)

SHANGHAI, Aug 18 —This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The U.S. dollar pared its gains on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that Fed officials are concerned the U.S. central bank could raise rates too far as part of its commitment to get inflation under control.

In a glimpse of the emerging debate at the central bank, “many” participants noted a risk that the Fed “could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability,” a fact that they said made sensitivity to incoming data all the more important, the minutes showed.

It comes after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the July meeting that the impact of Fed rate increases to date is still building in the economy, and depending on how inflation responds in coming months that could allow the central bank to begin to slow the pace of rate increases.

The dollar index fell to 106.39 after the meeting minutes were released, before rebounding back to 106.62, up 0.11% on the day.

The size of the Fed’s next expected rate hike is expected to depend on consumer price inflation and jobs data for August, which will be released before its September meeting.

The odds of a 75 basis-point hike in September dropped to 40% after the meeting minutes, from 52% earlier on Wednesday, with a 50 basis-point hike now seen as a 60% probability.

Stock market futures were flat during overnight trading Wednesday, after the Dow snapped a five-day winning streak and the recent rally fades.

Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 18 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.

During regular trading the Dow fell roughly 172 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 declined 0.7% for its first negative session in four. The Nasdaq Composite was the relative underperformer, dipping 1.25%. The tech-heavy index and S&P 500 are now both on track to snap a four-week winning streak.

Oil prices rose about 1.5% after hitting a six-month low on Wednesday, as a steeper-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stocks outweighed concerns over rising Russian output and exports as well as recession fears.

U.S. crude stocks fell by 7.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 12 to 425 million barrels, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed, compared with analysts’ forecasts for a 275,000-barrel drop in a Reuters poll.

Brent crude settled $1.31, or 1.42% higher at $93.65 per barrel. Earlier in the day, recession worries had pushed the benchmark price to its lowest since February at $91.51. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.58, or 1.8%, to $88.11 per barrel.

Gold pared some losses on Wednesday after minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting showed the pace of future hikes would depend on incoming economic data, while the dollar also added pressure on prices.

Spot gold fell 0.62% to $1,764.45 per ounce and U.S. gold futures were down 0.58% to $1,779.3.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally closed 1% lower, having given up earlier gains. Retail stocks led the losses, down over 2.6%, while food and beverages stocks bucked the trend to close up around 0.5%.