Recently, the power semiconductor "tycoon" new Jieneng (605111.SH), Yang Jie Technology (300373.SZ) have issued 2021 annual performance forecasts, are "happy to mention" the performance growth rate of more than 100%.
In the past year, due to the rapid rise of new energy vehicles, the high prosperity of automotive power semiconductors is nothing new. Under the guidance of policy, the application of power semiconductors in the field of energy storage has also received great attention recently. Some analysts told the Financial Union that semiconductors are also in great demand in the field of energy storage, especially IGBT, as the core device of energy storage inverter and photovoltaic inverter, the demand is very high. Looking forward to 2022, most people in the industry believe that the rise of domestic manufacturers has an opportunity to ease the tension caused by IGBT's dependence on imports and other reasons.
IGBT becomes the core device of energy storage
"the main role of power semiconductors in the field of energy storage is variable voltage, frequency conversion, alternating conversion and so on, and they are indispensable devices in energy storage applications, mainly IGBT, high-voltage MOSFET and SiC devices," Bu Rixin, an expert on Whale platform and a partner of Chuangdao Consulting, told reporters. With the energy storage on the tuyere, the important role of power semiconductors in energy storage has been paid more and more attention.
At present, "double carbon" has become the "key word" of economic development. Since the National Energy Administration issued the "guidance on accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage" in July 2021, the energy storage policies issued by various localities have been good continuously. According to the data of the National Energy Administration, Debon Securities estimates that by 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage on the user side in China will be 8.0GWhh, and the CAGR will reach 68% in the next five years.
"the greatest demand in power semiconductors is the IGBT, used in energy storage inverters (also known as energy storage converters), whose principle is similar to that in photovoltaic inverters," Gong Ruijiao, a consulting analyst at Jibang, told reporters. The cost of energy storage system is mainly composed of battery and energy storage inverter, which together constitute 80% of the cost of electrochemical energy storage system, of which energy storage inverter accounts for 20%.
As the technology of energy storage inverter is similar to that of photovoltaic inverter, most of the competitors in the energy storage inverter industry are photovoltaic inverter manufacturers. Therefore, domestic enterprises that already have a high say in the field of photovoltaic inverters, such as Sunshine Power supply (300274.SZ), Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ), etc., have also successfully become the head enterprises of energy storage inverters.
In this case, as the core device of the inverter, IGBT has become a new "battleground". According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, more than ten A-share enterprises have carried out IGBT production and capacity expansion in 2021.
The performance of domestic manufacturers is still in short supply and is worth looking forward to.
"at present, the IGBT produced by our company is still in short supply," a source from Jia en Semiconductor told the Financial Associated Press. In the past year, "lack of core" is a constant topic in the electronic market. As the core device in many key areas, such as new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and so on, the IGBT is self-evident.
After entering the second half of 2021, the supply and demand of IGBT is still tight, affected by the epidemic abroad, a number of head semiconductor enterprises shut down production, production capacity is limited. According to Fuchang Electronics Q3 market report, Infineon, Italian Semiconductor, on Semiconductor and other major international manufacturers IGBT delivery time is still as long as 39-50 weeks, and the price is still an upward trend.
Liu Xiang, deputy director of the Open Source Securities Research Institute, told reporters: "in 2022, there will be a wave of domestic enterprises, but it is expected that the overall tension between supply and demand will continue." according to the calculation of open source securities, the global demand value of wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage for IGBT will increase from 8.67 billion yuan in 2021 to 18.25 billion yuan in 2025, with CAGR as high as 20.45%.
A private equity investor told reporters that IGBT is one of the most deterministic segments of the entire semiconductor track in 2022 in his eyes. In addition to a large number of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, energy storage growth space is also huge.
According to the public information, due to the initial development of domestic IGBT technology and industry and the difficulties in product design, chip manufacturing, packaging and testing, product stability and so on, the main domestic IGBT suppliers are still some international manufacturers, and the domestic supply is only 30%.
In 2021, the era of domestic manufacturers has quietly arrived, and the IGBT manufacturers that have announced their expected results have handed in gratifying answers. On the evening of January 9, Yangjie Technology issued a forecast of its performance for 2021. The company expects a profit of 719 million to 794 million yuan for the whole year, an increase of 90 percent over the same period last year. Among them, revenue from IGBT products increased by 500 percent over the same period last year. Yangjie Technology explained that the company seized the opportunity of domestic substitution acceleration of power semiconductors, actively opened up the market, and its operating revenue grew rapidly. On the evening of January 11, New Jie Neng announced that it expects a net profit of 408 million yuan to 413 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 192.78% to 196.37% over the same period last year. The company said that it has successfully opened up emerging markets such as photovoltaic energy storage and new energy vehicles and achieved a large number of sales, and finally achieved better growth in business scale and economic benefits.
In this case, the performance of other domestic leading IGBT enterprises, such as 603290.SH, 688711.SH, 688187.SH and so on, is also worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that even if domestic manufacturers are expected to fill some of the gaps in 2022, it will still take time to "catch up". Analysts believe that the current domestic IGBT products are mainly low-end, and there is still a lack of strength in high-end IGBT products needed in high-voltage and high-power energy fields such as high-speed rail and inverters.
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