What is the future trend of spot quotation after the shock of lithium carbonate "flash collapse"?

On January 12, the website of Wuxi stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center showed that the prices of several lithium carbonate futures fell by more than 11.71%, and the lithium price index fell by 11.77%. This is also the second day in a row that the site's lithium price index plummeted, after falling more than 10.5% the day before.

While this "flash collapse" is staged, on the other hand, the spot price of lithium carbonate continues to rise, showing a completely different trend.

On January 12, according to the data of Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation, the prices of some lithium materials soared again. Among them, lithium carbonate rose 10500 yuan / ton, and the average price exceeded 330000 yuan / ton.

In this regard, a reporter from Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily learned from the website of Wuxi stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center that Wuxi stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center is a trading market supervised by a third party with funds introduced in October 2006. According to industrial and commercial information, the company was established on October 25, 2006, and its legal representative is Yu Xiaochun.

In response to the above situation, qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst from the New Energy Division of Shanghai Steel Union, told Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, "what Shanghai Iron and Steel Union evaluates is the price of the spot market, and the price of Wuxi stainless steel net belongs to the price of spot forward transactions. Electronic disk prices are extremely vulnerable to capital inflows and outflows."

"Wuxi stainless steel belongs to the spot forward trading platform, and this change is mainly due to the capital flow of the trading platform affected by market rumors." Qu Yinfei said.

A senior futures analyst told Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily that Wuxi stainless steel electronic trading center is a spot forward trading platform. "the price quoted on each website is different, but the data in Wuxi is relatively low. It is difficult to say whether there is a control plate, the specific reason is not known. " That's what the analyst said.

The follow-up spot quotation of lithium carbonate may continue to rise.

According to the spot price of non-ferrous metals in Shanghai, the price of 99.5% battery-grade lithium carbonate was 316000 yuan per ton on January 12, up 3000 yuan from the previous day.

At present, lithium carbonate, as an important raw material for power batteries of new energy vehicles, is mainly used in the production of lithium iron phosphate and low and medium nickel cathode materials in ternary materials.

According to SMM data, lithium carbonate products rose fiercely in 2021, with prices in an upward range for the whole year. Among them, on December 31, 2021, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 275000 yuan / ton, up 418.87% from the beginning of 2021.

"Click to view the spot market of SMM new energy products.

With regard to lithium carbonate, SMM believes that from 2021 to 2022, China's lithium carbonate supply will be limited by overseas resource production capacity, and there will be a supply gap of about 7% in 2022. The annual average price will significantly rise to about 280000 yuan / ton, and the high price may reach about 350000 yuan / ton. "View details

"Lithium carbonate will continue to rise due to tight supply and demand in the later stage." Huaan Securities to the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" reporter analysis said.

In addition, Guoxin Securities research believes that the prosperity of the lithium industry continues to improve, and it is expected that at the beginning of 2022, the tight situation of global supply and demand for lithium mines can hardly be alleviated in the short term, and there is still room for lithium salt and lithium ore prices to rise further.

The contradiction between supply and demand of lithium resources still exists.

From the point of view of the whole lithium industry chain, the upstream is lithium ore, and then it is processed into lithium salt products such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, and then to deep-processed lithium products such as battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade metal lithium, which are integrated and supplied by downstream battery manufacturers. Finally, it is applied in new energy vehicles and other fields.

The study of Shengang Securities shows that at present, the concentration of lithium resources at the supply end is moderately high, and the constraints of lithium supply are still there. With resource advantages, Australian mines and South American salt lakes have long been the world's major suppliers, supplying nearly 80 per cent of raw materials. During the period from 2021 to 2023, there is still a periodic mismatch of lithium salt, and the price of lithium salt will still be high. After 2023, with the baptism of power battery recycling and the maturity of superimposed recycling technology, it is expected that the relationship between global lithium supply and demand will improve from 2024 to 2025.

At present, the chain reaction caused by the increase in the price of raw materials upstream of lithium battery has been transmitted to other links of the industrial chain, such as battery manufacturers.

In the third quarter of 2021, most of the global power battery manufacturers are under pressure from the rising prices of raw materials in the middle and upper reaches. Among them, in addition to Ningde era to achieve revenue, net profit, month-on-month double increase, gross profit margin slightly increased, LG new energy, Panasonic, Yiwei lithium energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other power battery manufacturers' revenue, profit, gross profit margin and other power battery manufacturers have declined to varying degrees.

Tianfeng Securities research shows that, if combined with the impact of bargaining power and purchase volume on the actual procurement cost, combined with the hedging of performance and technological progress and cost increases, taken together, the cost increase transmitted to the end of the power battery by the rise in the price of raw materials is about 20% and 25%.

"the contradiction between supply and demand supports the central high price of lithium and does not affect downstream demand." Huaan Securities research said, "for the whole car factory, resources tend to new energy vehicles, models and market layout priority is higher, the rise in the cost of a single link does not affect the launch of models and the overall market demand, and some of the mid-stream links of lithium power and auto parts still have price buffers."

On January 12, according to the statistical analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, automobile production and sales increased in 2021 compared with the same period last year, ending three consecutive years of decline since 2018. Among them, new energy vehicles have become the biggest bright spot, with annual sales of more than 3.5 million vehicles and market share rising to 13.4%, further indicating that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven.

In addition, on January 11, the Federation said that according to the newly released policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system for purchase subsidies would remain unchanged in 2022, while the scale of the subsidy would not be locked from the original upper limit of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy would be realized throughout 2022. With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of the ability to reduce costs, it is expected that the increment of new energy vehicles at the end of 2022 will be very strong. Originally expected to sell 4.8 million new energy passenger vehicles in 2022, it should now be adjusted to more than 5.5 million, with a penetration rate of about 25 per cent.