Raw material R142b has skyrocketed by 12 times in the past year. Next year, the PVDF gap of lithium level may increase.

Under the continuous expansion of application demand in lithium battery manufacturing, photovoltaic backplane and energy storage, PVDF (polyvinylidene fluoride) has shown explosive growth. R142b, as the main raw material for the production of fluorine chemical product PVDF, has risen in the same direction, and the latest price has risen to 180000 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of more than 10%, and a cumulative increase of 12 times in the past year.

Industry insiders believe that the current R142b supply is tight, domestic production capacity is insufficient, it is difficult to stack and expand production, downstream demand continues to be strong, most cell factories regard PVDF as the most scarce material in the future, PVDF prices have risen strongly since the second half of the year, R142b supply tension is not expected to ease in the short term, next year is expected to continue to rise to a new high. Under the shortage of supply, 300343.SZ, 600160.SH, 00189.HK and 601101.SH are all planning to expand production.

Next year, PVDF's new energy demand will reach 50-60%.

The relevant person in charge of Lianchuang Co., Ltd. said that the main cost of PVDF comes from R142b, and the normal consumption of R142b per ton of PVDF is about 1.8t R142b. According to the current market situation, the price of R142b and coating grade PVDF, lithium grade PVDF in the industry chain is calculated according to the following conservative values (at the end of November): R142b is priced at 180000 yuan / ton; coating grade PVDF is priced at 350000 yuan / ton; lithium grade PVDF is priced at 470000 yuan / ton. More than 90% of the cost in PVDF production is R142b.

Guosheng petrochemical analysts said that in the next 2-3 years, PVDF and R142b will be one of the most scarce materials in the battery. From the investigation of battery enterprises, the core factory regards PVDF as the most scarce material in the future. From the point of view of demand, the consumption of PVDF per GW is about 60 tons, which is used for positive binder and diaphragm coating, and the total domestic output is 50-60 thousand tons. According to estimates, the proportion of new energy demand in PVDF may reach 50-60% next year. At the same time, PVDF can be used as photovoltaic backplane paint and fluorocarbon paint, this part of the price is relatively rigid, the downstream price affordability is strong.

According to industry insiders, with regard to the demand for replacement, 80% of lithium PVDF is used in positive binder, there is no alternative material at present, and PVDF has significant advantages in high voltage resistance, adhesion, and stability. PVDF accounts for only 2% of the cost of lithium batteries, and there is no alternative demand or alternative.

Integrated industrial chain companies benefit most from lithium battery-level PVDF companies are expanding production

According to the survey, in 2020, China has a production capacity of 69800 tons of PVDF and 19000 tons of Arkema in Changshu, making it the largest PVDF supplier in China. Foreign manufacturers Su Wei, Wu Yu and Arkema need to purchase R142b, while foreign manufacturers PVDF focus on lithium power, photovoltaic and other new energy applications.

According to industry insiders, non-integrated industrial chain enterprises, according to the current market prices for the sale of lithium grade PVDF profit space of about 120000 yuan / ton, the production of coating grade basically does not make money. For integrated industrial chain enterprises, the profits of R142b, coating grade PVDF and lithium grade PVDF are 150000 yuan / ton, 250000 yuan / ton and 340000 yuan / ton respectively. Due to the strong demand-side pull and production quota control restrictions, the main price increases and profits in R142b raw materials, the most benefit is the domestic production R142b enterprises with large production capacity.

According to the above people, lithium products have the highest quality requirements for PVDF, followed by photovoltaic backplane, and paint products are relatively popular. At present, the domestic demand for lithium-grade PVDF is nearly 15000 tons, but the effective supply is less than 10, 000 tons, and the domestic production capacity of lithium-grade PVDF is only about 5000 tons. There is an obvious supply gap for lithium-grade PVDF, which is also the main reason for the soaring product prices.

Among them, listed companies Zhongdongyue Group and Lianchuang shares, such integrated companies benefit the most; on the contrary, other companies that outsource R142b to produce PVDF benefit less.

According to the statistics of the Financial Associated Press, a number of PVDF companies are planning to expand production in the future.

People from Lianchuang Co., Ltd. said that the company R142b has a production capacity of 20, 000 tons, with an export volume of 12600 tons, with about 80, 000 tons left. in addition, the PVDF project will be equipped with a production capacity of about 11000 tons of R142b, which is expected to be put into production in the second quarter of 2022 and is mainly used in lithium production. There will be more than 30,000 tons of R142b production capacity in the future.

The person in charge of Juhua said that the company has an annual production capacity of 20, 000 tons of R142b, which is used for VDF preparation and as raw material for the company's PVDF and FKM (fluorine rubber) production. In addition, the first phase of the company's 10, 000-ton / year PVDF project was put into production in December 2017, and the second phase is being implemented as soon as possible.

Relevant sources of Dongyue Group said that the company is supporting the expansion of 25000 tons of R142b, and is optimistic about the market prospect of lithium power PVDF next year. At present, there are only two or three companies that can produce lithium PVDF in China, and these companies cannot meet the demand of downstream growth. They will not be put into production until the end of next year or the year after next. At least next year, lithium PVDF is still very good. At present, it is the largest supplier of orders to two customers, and now it is to receive orders once a month.

East Sunshine (600673.SH) has a lithium battery-grade PVDF capacity of about 5000 tons and signed a strategic agreement with downstream lithium battery accessories manufacturer 603659.SH to jointly invest in the R142b project with an annual production capacity of 27000 tons of PVDF+.

Industry insiders predict that all relevant planned capacity expansion is expected to enter the peak period of industry production from the end of 2022 to the first half of 2023, which is still in short supply in the short term, and is expected to continue to bring considerable performance growth for listed companies in the industrial chain.

Founder Dianxin industry analysts estimate that the future PVDF industry space will exceed 10 billion yuan, accounting for about 2% of the battery cost, accounting for about 2% of the battery cost. 21-22 PVDF total demand for 58000 tons, 72000 tons, assuming a unit ton price of 300000 yuan, the industry scale can reach 17 billion yuan, 21 billion yuan. From next year, the new production capacity is only Lianchuang, Dongyue, Haohua and other manufacturers, and the casting time is after the middle of the year, the lithium grade PVDF gap is expected to increase next year.